Weather looking better
For saturday: the nwp models continue to merge toward a common
solution of a slower frontal passage -- which the NAM/WRF has shown
for several days. The slower timing of the front should result in
generally partly cloudy skies and dry conditions for most or all of
the day across central NC on Saturday. It should become quite
breezy... however... as the mslp gradient ahead of the front further
tightens overhead... and a 30-35 knots 925 mb jet develops and mixes
down across our region. Accordingly... expect sustained
southwesterly winds around 15 miles per hour with gusts 20-30 miles per hour. High
temperatures expected to range from the upper 50s northwest to middle 60s
southeast.
Saturday night: a strengthening southwesterly low level jet (to
around 50 kts) and resultant increasing low level Theta-E
advection... is expected to support scattered to numerous showers
in vicinity of the cold front as it crosses our region in the 05 to 10z time
frame from northwest to southeast. Have accordingly delayed likely probability of precipitation until
after 03z Saturday night... at which time upper divergence in an
upper jet right entrance region increases overhead. Lapse rates
remain rather weak (~5.5 c.Km or less) with less than 100 j/kg of
MUCAPE expected... so the threat of thunder will be limited and
omitted from the forecast. Quite a range in low temperatures
expected with upper 30s northwest to lower 50s southeast given the very late
timing of the cold front. Storm total precipitation amounts still
expected to be around a quarter of an inch or so. -Mws
